Kamis, 19 Februari 2009

As bear markets go, we're back to the 1930s experience

With today's drop, major stock market indexes are back to showing Depression-era declines.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index, which lost 1.2% to 778.94, is down 50.3% from its record high reached in October 2007.

That exceeds the 49.1% total decline during the 2000-2002 bear market and the 48.2% drop during the 1973-1974 bear. Those were the worst losses of the post-World War II era -- until now.

Grizzlybear The S&P 500 still is 3.5% above its lowest closing level reached last fall, which was 752.44 on Nov. 20. At that point it was off 51.9% from the 2007 high. But that slide below the 50%-loss threshold lasted just one day; the S&P bounced back 6.3% on Nov. 21.

There were three bear markets during the Depression years of the 1930s, according to Stanard & Poor’s calculations. The worst was the 1929-1932 plunge, which slashed 86.2% from the S&P 500. The second, from March 1937 to March 1938, saw the index tumble 54.5%. During the third, from late-1938 to 1942, the S&P slumped 45.8%.

Sorry to throw out so many numbers, but I wanted to make the point: In terms of the loss of equity wealth, we now have fallen through what had been the previous worst experiences of the modern era.

We aren’t in uncharted territory, but by the simple measure of stocks’ percentage decline from their peak, we’re in territory that hasn’t been charted since the 1930s.

Photo: From the 2008 movie "Grizzly Park." Credit: American World Pictures


UBS refuses US demand

WASHINGTONSWISS banking giant UBS on Thursday refused a US government demand to provide information on 52,000 US clients, requested in a lawsuit filed earlier in the day as part of a tax fraud investigation.

The US government filed a lawsuit in Miami, Florida, asking the court to order UBS to reveal to the US tax authorities the identities of the bank's US customersidentified with the moniker 'John Doe''with secret Swiss accounts,' the Justice Department said.
Dow falls 90, closes at lowest level in more than 6 years
The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled to its lowest close in more than six years today as sharp declines in key financial shares led the market lower.


Reduced Indo-Pak tension to help Islamabad curb terror: Holbrooke
US special envoy on Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke said that reducing tension between India and Pakistan was crucial for getting Islamabad to focus on its western borders with Afghanistan.

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