Stocks get their long-awaited bounce. But can it last?This may qualify as the most anticipated stock market rally in history.
Now, the pressure will be on the bulls to keep it from being another one-day wonder.
With blue-chip share prices at 12-year lows -- and the gloom unrelentingly thick for the last few weeks -- even some of the market’s biggest bears had been predicting a sharp snap-back, as I noted here on Monday.
We got the bounce today. The Dow Jones industrials shot up 379.44 points, or 5.8%, to 6,926.49, the biggest percentage gain since the index jumped 6.5% on Nov. 21 -- which marked the end of the autumn market meltdown.
The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 surged 43.07 points, or 6.4%, to 719.60, its largest percentage gain since Nov. 24.
Todd Clark, trading chief at Nollenberger Capital Partners in San Francisco, said that although the market has had other big, one-day bounces this year, "This one does feel a little different. We had good volume, which was very encouraging."
Another positive sign: On the New York Stock Exchange, 2,917 issues rose -- the greatest number in any session since Oct. 13. That shows broad-based buying.
All the market needed was a spark, and it came from (of all places) Citigroup Inc., after the government-supported banking titan said it was profitable in January and February.
That helped drive a spectacular rally in financial stocks in general, sending an index of 81 financial issues in the S&P 500 up 15.6% -- the biggest one-day gain since Nov. 24.
Some of the buying in the financial sector almost certainly was by "short sellers" who were closing out their bets that the stocks would fall even lower.
The shorts had another reason to be wary: Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) told reporters in Washington that he believed the Securities and Exchange Commission soon would reinstate the so-called uptick rule to curb short sales.
Finally, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke sounded sympathetic to bending "mark-to-market" accounting rules to provide relief to banks from further debilitating mortgage write-downs.
Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist for brokerage Cantor Fitzgerald, said Wall Street still is in the mode of looking for a bottoming of ravaged financial stocks to signal that the rest of the market -- and the economy -- also are at or near the bottom.
If the Treasury’s long-delayed plan to deal with banks’ toxic assets is announced in the next couple of weeks, Pado said, it could give investors confidence to keep piling into battered financial issues, betting that the worst finally has past.
Still, for the moment many market pros just are hoping to string together two back-to-back winning sessions, a feat last accomplished Feb. 11-12. After that, they’ll focus on whether this is yet another rally in an ongoing bear market, or something sustainable.
A critical question for the bulls, in the short-term and the longer-term: Will there be enough of them to overcome selling from people who’ve been waiting desperately for a bounce to exit this market vale of tears, once and for all?
After the worst market losses since the 1930s, "The bigger issue we've got is people now shunning equities as an asset class," and wanting no more part of Wall Street, Clark said.
-- Tom Petruno
Photo: Smiling again on the NYSE floor. Credit: Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg News
Betting on Geithner’s Future
ABC News’ Charles Herman reports: Complaints about the administration’s response to the worsening economic situation have zeroed in on the Treasury Department and Secretary Timothy Geithner.
Despite all that his overworked department has accomplished in the first 50 days of the new administration, his less-than-successful unveiling of the Financial Stability Plan (or Troubled Assets Relief Program 2.0) and subsequent public appearances and on Capitol Hill have resulted in Geithner receiving low marks for his leadership, as my colleague Jake Tapper reported.
Now the wondering is not just about when Geithner will reveal specifics about how to tackle the toxic mortgage assets still polluting banks’ balance sheets, but whether Geithner will keep his job.
Intrade, which lets you trade in predictions, has set up a futures market on whether or not Geithner will still be in office by the end of June and another one for him leaving office by the end of December.
You can basically look at the trade price as the percentage of people who think that some event will happen. Accordingly, 22 percent of people trading believe Geithner will leave office by the end of this year.
Intrade has futures markets for a range of topics like whether Apple CEO Steve Jobs will leave by the end of this year (55 percent), whether Osama bin Laden is captured in September (8 percent) and if General Motors files for bankruptcy by December (75 percent).
(Psst ... Adam Lambert is currently predicted to win “American Idolâ€).
150 years in prison?NEW YORKFALLEN Wall Street baron Bernard Madoff confirmed on Tuesday he is set to plead guilty to a massive multi-billion dollar fraud and prosecutors said he should spend the rest of his life in prison.
After months of speculation, Madoff confirmed in court through his lawyer Ira Sorkin that he will plead guilty at a hearing on Thursday.
Disgraced financier Madoff to plead guilty to all charges
Disgraced financier Bernard Madoff unexpectedly revealed today that he will plead guilty to all charges -- without a plea deal -- and face a prison sentence of up to 150 years for swindling billions of dollars in one of the largest investment schemes in U.S. history.
Mamata gives 2 days to CongressTrinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee on Tuesday broke her silence over the issue and served a 48-hour ultimatum on the Congress leadership asking it to clear its stand within the deadline.